- The Rays are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Rays TV Channel: BSFL | BSUN
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-175) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Marlins are 39-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 52-54 ATS.
Marlins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-3, 7.05 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -120 | +145 |
| Rays | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 +100 | -175 |
Marlins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+14.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 34 games (+20.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+14.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 away games (+15.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 88 games (+10.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 103 games (+22.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+11.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+10.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 50-56 against the Run Line (-22.11 Units / -15.79% ROI).
- 39-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -15.95% ROI
- 58-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 7.78% ROI
- 45-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -15.43% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 52-54 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.52% ROI).
- 54-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.05 Units / -5.39% ROI
- 50-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 53-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.46% ROI
Rays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Rays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Rays vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs (TB) | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +135 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 7 of 27 left-handed batters (26%) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 9 of 45 batters (20%) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 59% (389/659) when he’s behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 35 of 254 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs has limited playing time.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are just 13-12 (.520) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Marlins are just 3-15 (.167) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Marlins are just 20-9 (.690) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are just 22-44 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Rays are 72-43 (.626) after a loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Rays are 11-100 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Rays are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins have won just 50% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 39% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 190 strikeouts in 586 PA’s (32%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,121 of 15,926 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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