- The Reds are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-155) on Saturday, July 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Marlins are 32-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 54-41 ATS.
Marlins vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-2, 6.76 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 9-6, 3.07 ERA
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -120 | +130 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 +100 | -155 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 76 games (+17.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 42 away games (+17.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+1.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 22 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+13.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 41-53 against the Run Line (-27.36 Units / -21.91% ROI).
- 32-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -23 Units / -22.95% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 4.24% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -11.78% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 54-41 against the Run Line (+9.05 Units / 7.25% ROI).
- 46-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -2.85% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -12.14% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.4% ROI
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dane Myers (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 81 of 548 batters (15%) since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (89/483) against Edward Cabrera since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (132/203) against Edward Cabrera on non-fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 114 of 839 batters (14%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 22 of 162 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .154 (10-for-65) against Andrew Abbott with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (44/203) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has a strike rate of just 62% (802/1,293) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 9-11 (.450) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .754.
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-38 (.424) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .202 (1,753 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .403 (1,753 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 135 walks in 2,338 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 233 total hits (40%) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .151 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds have won just 61% of games in which they have scored first at home since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .288 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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