- The Royals are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Royals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Marlins / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-200) on Tuesday, June 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Marlins are 27-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 45-35 ATS.
Marlins vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos 0-0, 3.60 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 10-2, 2.41 ERA
Marlins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -115 | O 9.5 -110 | +165 |
| Royals | -1.5 -105 | U 9.5 -110 | -200 |
Marlins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 24 away games (+18.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+15.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 away games (+10.60 Units / 73% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+8.65 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 29 games (+18.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+15.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+13.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+13.00 Units / 144% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+9.44 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 38 games at home (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 33-45 against the Run Line (-26.46 Units / -24.85% ROI).
- 27-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.05 Units / -24.07% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.95 Units / 2.27% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.5 Units / -9.92% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 45-35 against the Run Line (+2.59 Units / 2.35% ROI).
- 43-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 7.72% ROI
- 34-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -14.13% ROI
- 42-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 5.18% ROI
Royals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Royals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Yonny Chirinos (MIA) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (33/55) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH (281 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% (69/145) against Yonny Chirinos vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 11th Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH in the 2023 season (281 balls in play) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (seventh worst)– ninth Percentile and just .143 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (tied for fifth best among qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (20/117) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3223.4 RPM on curveballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 2525.6 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 7 of 206 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Marlins are just 23-17 (.575) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Marlins are just 2-10 (.167) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Marlins are 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins are just 9-18 (.333) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Royals are just 18-95 (.159) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Royals are just 23-54 (.299) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 46-66 (.411) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .198 (1,434 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .397 (1,434 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .539 (893 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (401.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Royals won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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