Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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Atlanta Braves' Austin Riley in action during Game 4 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
AP Photo/Chris Szagola
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Mets
  • Mets vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
  • Mets / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | SNY | ESPN2

The New York Mets (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Monday, September 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:40pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Mets are 88-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 74-86 ATS.

Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 4-5, 3.99 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 8-7, 3.47 ERA

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -175O 7.5 -110+120
Braves -1.5 +145U 7.5 -110-145

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
  • Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+14.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Gio Urshela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+27.00 Units / 193% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 44 games (+25.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 40 games (+18.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+14.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 101 games (+20.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 102 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 146 games (+39.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 82-78 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.01% ROI).

  • 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.59% ROI
  • 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.48% ROI
  • 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -6.79% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 74-86 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -8.26% ROI).

  • 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.45 Units / -8.18% ROI
  • 58-96 when betting on the total runs Over for -46.6 Units / -26.67% ROI
  • 96-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +32 Units / 18.03% ROI

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +333 0.5 -450
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 +425 0.5 -650
Jorge Soler (ATL) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Gio Urshela (ATL) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Ozzie Albies (ATL) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Jorge Soler (ATL) 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Ozzie Albies (ATL) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) 5.5 -155 5.5 +120
Tylor Megill (NYM) 5.5 +125 5.5 -160

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .413 (172 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .323 — first Percentile.

Tylor Megill has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 88.2.

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .396 (207 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .321 — fourth Percentile.

David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 172 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Spencer Schwellenbach when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .207 — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 4 of 180 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (11/42) against Spencer Schwellenbach this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — fifth Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OBP of just .230 (300 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 99th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 7-59 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.

The Mets are just 14-67 (.173) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.

The Mets are 15-190 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.

The Mets are just 128-19 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 37-87 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Braves are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.

The Braves are 82-60 (.577) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.

The Braves are 151-88 (.632) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (2,154 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Mets hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,923 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Braves hitters are slugging .448 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Mets pitchers have walked 575 of 6,000 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,853 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
  • New York Mets – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.