- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | SNY | ESPN2
The New York Mets (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Monday, September 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:40pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Mets are 88-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 74-86 ATS.
Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 4-5, 3.99 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 8-7, 3.47 ERA
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -110 | +120 |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -110 | -145 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+14.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gio Urshela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+27.00 Units / 193% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 44 games (+25.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 40 games (+18.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+14.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 101 games (+20.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 102 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 146 games (+39.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 82-78 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.01% ROI).
- 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.59% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.48% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -6.79% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 74-86 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -8.26% ROI).
- 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.45 Units / -8.18% ROI
- 58-96 when betting on the total runs Over for -46.6 Units / -26.67% ROI
- 96-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +32 Units / 18.03% ROI
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .413 (172 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .323 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 88.2.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .396 (207 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .321 — fourth Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 172 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Spencer Schwellenbach when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .207 — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 4 of 180 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (11/42) against Spencer Schwellenbach this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — fifth Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OBP of just .230 (300 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 99th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 7-59 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are just 14-67 (.173) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are 15-190 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are just 128-19 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 37-87 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Braves are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Braves are 82-60 (.577) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Braves are 151-88 (.632) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (2,154 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,923 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters are slugging .448 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 575 of 6,000 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,853 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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