- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Mets vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | SNY
The New York Mets (-125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+105) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Mets are 22-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 15-18 ATS.
Mets vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Blade Tidwell 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde 1-3, 4.78 ERA
Mets vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Mets vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.50 Units / 212% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.25 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+12.00 Units / 171% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Erick Fedde has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+4.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-14 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 15.49% ROI).
- 22-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 13.99% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -27.85% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.75 Units / 18.67% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 15-18 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -18.39% ROI).
- 14-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -15.03% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 10.07% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -19.12% ROI
Cardinals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Cardinals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Cardinals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Cardinals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde (STL) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Blade Tidwell (NYM) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .392 (40-for-102) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OPS of just .362 (64 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .718 — 98th Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (173/226) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Andre Pallante has a strike rate of just 52% (79/153) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (173/226) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Andre Pallante has a strike rate of just 52% (79/153) in two strike counts this season — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Mets are 8-68 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 13-62 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mets are 18-8 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cardinals are just 53-59 (.473) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Cardinals are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Cardinals are 83-2 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Cardinals are just 4-13 (.235) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters had an OPS of .769 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .357 (235 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Mets are batting .285 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .205 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .149.
The Cardinals are batting .354 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Cardinals hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,755 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .356 (609 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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