- The Mets are -102 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mets vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNY | MLBN
The New York Mets (-102) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-118) on Monday, May 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Mets are 22-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 17-17 ATS.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Griffin Canning 4-1, 2.64 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 1-0, 5.72 ERA
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | O 9.5 -115 | -102 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -190 | U 9.5 -105 | -118 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+9.70 Units / 76% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+16.00 Units / 267% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 away games (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in their last 10 games at home (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.69 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-16 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 10.19% ROI).
- 22-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 7.64% ROI
- 14-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -14.28% ROI
- 20-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 7.84% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 17-17 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -2.67% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.82% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 2.67% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -8.74% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Griffin Canning (NYM) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.5 +150 | 4.5 -200 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Griffin Canning has allowed a slugging percentage of .524 (162 Total Bases / 309 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — second Percentile.
Griffin Canning allowed a slugging percentage of .561 (147 Total Bases / 262 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — first Percentile.
Griffin Canning has allowed an OPS of .873 (342 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .660 — fourth Percentile.
Griffin Canning allowed an OPS of .903 (288 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson had an ERA of 8.25 (55.2 IP) at home in 2023 — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.14 — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of 42% (8 SO in 19 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of 42% (8 SO in 19 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (81/256) against Ryne Nelson since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are 6-2 (.750) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 13-64 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mets are 34-26 (.567) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Diamondbacks (first best runs scored) today.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 148-36 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-4 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Diamondbacks were 5-59 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .821 (238 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .357 (238 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters slugged .440 against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 16% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .278 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .347 (3,694 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mets pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (4,288 batted balls) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
More MLB Reading:
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