- The Mets are + favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: WPIX | BSFL | MLBN
The New York Mets () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 49-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-54 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 6-3, 3.77 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-4, 5.44 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | O | ||
| Marlins | U |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 62.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 87 games (+19.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+6.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+18.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+12.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 33 games at home (+3.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-50 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -5.52% ROI).
- 49-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.53% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 6.5% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.35 Units / -15% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 43-54 against the Run Line (-26.86 Units / -20.8% ROI).
- 34-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.25 Units / -20.59% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 4.95% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -12.55% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (200/456) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (200/456) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (27/158) against Luis Severino this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 21% (85/406) against Luis Severino this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 12th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has walked 26 of 225 batters (12%) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .149 (7 GB hits out of 47 GBs) against Roddery Munoz this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 99th Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed a BABIP of .221 this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .288 — 98th Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 38-6 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are just 34-11 (.756) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 34-36 (.486) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 10-12 (.455) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .755.
The Marlins are just 18-12 (.600) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Marlins are just 3-34 (.081) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,047 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Mets hitters are slugging .453 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Mets hitters have 101 extra-base hits out of 249 total hits (41%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .590 (1,137 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .205 (1,819 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,171 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 365 of 3,688 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 221 of 2,275 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.66 runs per game (283/50) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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