- The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: WPIX | BSFL
The New York Mets (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 44-54 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-2, 4.40 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.74 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -110 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -110 | +125 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 88 games (+18.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+17.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+15.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+2.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-51 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -6.36% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 51-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 41-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.35 Units / -13.87% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 44-54 against the Run Line (-25.86 Units / -19.86% ROI).
- 34-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.25 Units / -21.35% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 3.88% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -11.49% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott (NYM) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Christian Scott has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to May 24th — tied with Michael Lorenzen and Ben Lively for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Christian Scott has allowed a slugging percentage of .722 (26 Total Bases / 36 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — fifth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (4/18) against Christian Scott in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against Christian Scott when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed three-ball counts to 37% of batters they faced (23/62 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .319 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (73/260) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 50% (177/356) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 34-11 (.756) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 38-6 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 7-31 (.184) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Marlins are just 10-12 (.455) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .755.
The Marlins are just 17-9 (.654) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins are just 8-13 (.381) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging .437 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .784 (1,051 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,051 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,171 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .589 (1,149 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 82 of 872 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 369 of 3,725 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 960 of 9,809 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 18 of 114 batters (16%) over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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