- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The New York Mets (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mets are 26-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 36-24 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 3-2, 3.50 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-6, 5.87 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -120 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -130 | U 9.5 +100 | +120 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+15.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+14.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games (+20.90 Units / 91% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+14.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+11.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+8.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 away games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 26 away games (+5.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 52 games (+10.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 52 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+2.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 27-34 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -12.98% ROI).
- 26-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.95 Units / -16.17% ROI
- 31-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 3.58% ROI
- 26-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -11.62% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 36-24 against the Run Line (+9.13 Units / 11.77% ROI).
- 27-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 11.22% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.75 Units / -13.36% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.28 Units / 4.93% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bader (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Harrison Bader (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (14/97) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (32/183) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .172 (22-for-128) against Luis Severino this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 93rd Percentile.
Luis Severino has an ERA of 7.19 (71.1 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 4.29 — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .319 (196-for-615) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (32-for-92) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .266 (29-for-109) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .496 (305 Total Bases / 615 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — third Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 5-94 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 79-16 (.832) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 10-51 (.164) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are just 29-33 (.468) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Nationals are just 70-117 (.374) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 24-45 (.348) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 146-201 (.421) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .271 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets have won just 25% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .859 (429 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.038.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .309 (4,188 PA’s) at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 878 strikeouts in 4,459 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals are just 3-13 (.188) against the run line (-52.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Nationals hitters have just 481 strikeouts in 2,512 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 551 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 202 of 1,963 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 251 of 2,374 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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