- The Mets are -110 favorites vs the Phillies
- Mets vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SNY
The New York Mets (-110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-110) on Saturday, September 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Mets are 80-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-74 ATS.
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 10-6, 3.74 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kolby Allard 2-0, 3.50 ERA
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -120 | -110 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | U 9 +100 | -110 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.40 Units / 63% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Luis Severino has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+7.35 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+13.70 Units / 137% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 74-72 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 80-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 2.71% ROI
- 71-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -2.56% ROI
- 68-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -5.8% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 72-74 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -2.67% ROI).
- 88-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 68-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 72-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.09% ROI
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kolby Allard (PHI) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -105 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has walked 28 of 339 right-handed batters (8%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 19th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .197 (45-for-229) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 89th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .316 (690 PA’s) this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — 18th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 (69 Total Bases / 229 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 89th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Mets are 13-7 (.650) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are just 57-15 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Mets are 129-29 (.816) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 76-12 (.864) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Phillies are 33-17 (.660) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have a winning percentage of 82% this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,619 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .741 (9,135 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Mets are batting .287 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (3,616 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 66% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .349 (1,747 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .795 (1,747 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 542 of 5,555 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 256 of 2,726 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 393 of 5,484 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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