- The Yankees are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Yankees Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Yankees TV Channel: YES | WPIX
The New York Mets (+115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-135) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY, NY.
This season, the Mets are 28-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 21-22 ATS.
Mets vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 3-3, 3.05 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 4-3, 3.28 ERA
Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -115 | +115 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -105 | -135 |
Mets vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.95 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+16.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jasson Dominguez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 109% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games (+7.44 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.99 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.69 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+6.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.02 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.61 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+3.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 23-21 against the Run Line (+4.64 Units / 8.6% ROI).
- 28-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 7% ROI
- 16-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -26.29% ROI
- 26-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.2 Units / 16.98% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 21-22 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 2.24% ROI).
- 25-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -6.05% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.03 Units / -2.16% ROI
Yankees vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -235 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Yankees vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Yankees vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Yankees vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -115 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed a slugging percentage of .646 (62 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on elevated fastballs in 2023 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .404 — third Percentile.
Tylor Megill has thrown fastballs 85% of the time (127/149) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 54% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has a in-zone of just 43% (277/650) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .171 (33-for-193) against Carlos Rodon this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 38% (57/149) against Carlos Rodon this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .149 (11-for-74) against Carlos Rodon when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets are 12-3 (.800) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 10-4 (.714) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Yankees (third best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Yankees (third best runs scored) today.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 48-28 (.632) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (15th best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are just 8-132 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .834 (540 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .750 (1,346 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .355 (322 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .882 (454 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .828 (1,694 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Yankees are batting .348 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
More MLB Reading:
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