- The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | MASN
The Washington Nationals (+130) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-155) on Sunday, July 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Nationals are 44-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 49-47 ATS.
Nationals vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 7-7, 3.16 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 8-3, 3.81 ERA
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -115 | +130 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +130 | U 9 -105 | -155 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 88 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 88 games (+10.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 88 games (+4.80 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 96 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 92 games (+9.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 54-42 against the Run Line (+6.33 Units / 5.08% ROI).
- 44-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 6.94% ROI
- 44-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -7.24% ROI
- 47-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.92 Units / -1.81% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 49-47 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.8% ROI).
- 54-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 5.96% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.75 Units / 7.39% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.15 Units / -15.19% ROI
Brewers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Brewers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Brewers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 3 of 18 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (135/366) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed an OBP of just .220 (205 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (617/1,760) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 15% (24 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (129/706) against Colin Rea this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/139) against Colin Rea on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Colin Rea has struck out just 16% (37/229) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 51-75 (.405) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Nationals are just 53-205 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 66-45 (.595) after a loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Brewers are 28-21 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 77-49 (.611) at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Brewers are 28-17 (.622) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .633 (1,040 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .952 (1,765 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1142.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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