- The Nationals are +100 favorites vs the Mariners
- Nationals vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Mariners TV Channel: FS1 | MASN | RTNW
The Washington Nationals (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Thursday, May 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Nationals are 25-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 27-27 ATS.
Nationals vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-5, 3.53 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Emerson Hancock 2-2, 6.06 ERA
Nationals vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -105 | +100 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 -115 | -120 |
Nationals vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+19.65 Units / 328% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+10.65 Units / 118% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+10.90 Units / 182% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 61% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Walks Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.49 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 42 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 29-26 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -3.17% ROI).
- 25-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.93 Units / 1.61% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -5.57% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -2.87% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 27-27 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.6% ROI).
- 30-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.41% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 5.91% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.22 Units / -15.46% ROI
Mariners vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Mariners vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mariners vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Mariners vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock (SEA) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +100 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 39% (39 SO in 99 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (188/544) against MacKenzie Gore this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (188/544) against MacKenzie Gore this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 36% (93 SO in 257 PAs) this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .410 against Emerson Hancock this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .255 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (49/150) against Emerson Hancock since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Emerson Hancock has allowed an OPS of 1.141 (62 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .740 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .330 (31-for-94) against Emerson Hancock this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .244 — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 28-51 (.354) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Mariners (21st best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 94-103 (.475) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 159-185 (.461) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mariners are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners are 144-22 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mariners are 19-1 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .866.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .208 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners batted just .214 at home in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .340 (3,351 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .263 (1,929 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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