- The Mets are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Mets TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-275) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Nationals are 30-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 38-29 ATS.
Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 5-2, 4.08 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 4-2, 2.80 ERA
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | O 8.5 +100 | +220 |
| Mets | -1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -120 | -275 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 67.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+14.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 64% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+9.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.60 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+14.80 Units / 164% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.29 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 away games (+9.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.92 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games at home (+12.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+12.09 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 35-31 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -2.97% ROI).
- 30-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.63 Units / 2.37% ROI
- 31-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -7.1% ROI
- 33-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.51% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 38-29 against the Run Line (+9.29 Units / 10.52% ROI).
- 43-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.45 Units / 9.56% ROI
- 25-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.3 Units / -26.03% ROI
- 40-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.4 Units / 16.92% ROI
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ronny Mauricio (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Luis Torrens (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ronny Mauricio (NYM) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -105 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown 59% of his pitches in the strike zone (698/1,190) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 20% (102/502) against Jake Irvin in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (277/847) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown 62% of his pitches in the strike zone (148/238) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (117/204) against David Peterson this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (94/165) against David Peterson’s slider since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 36% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (43/77) against David Peterson in two-strike counts this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents batted .374 (104-for-278) against David Peterson on pitches in the strike zone in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 4-14 (.211) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Nationals are just 162-190 (.459) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 6-13 (.316) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (15th best runs allowed) today.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 44-35 (.557) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Nationals (25th best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 16-11 (.593) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Nationals (25th best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 4-2 (.667) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Nationals (24th best runs allowed) today.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .238 (266 PA’s) this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .230 (162 PA’s) against RHP this month (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .168 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 78% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Mets hitters are slugging .428 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Batters facing the Nationals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 48% of the time since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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