- The Mets are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Mets TV Channel: MASN | SNY | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+185) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-225) on Thursday, June 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Nationals are 30-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-29 ATS.
Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mike Soroka 3-3, 4.87 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 6-3, 1.60 ERA
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 8 -105 | +185 |
| Mets | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -115 | -225 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 65.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+19.90 Units / 249% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.55 Units / 64% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 4 games at home (+15.30 Units / 383% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.29 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 away games (+8.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.92 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 33 games at home (+13.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games (+13.09 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 35-32 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -4.08% ROI).
- 30-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.63 Units / 0.9% ROI
- 31-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -8.55% ROI
- 34-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-29 against the Run Line (+10.29 Units / 11.47% ROI).
- 44-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.45 Units / 10.22% ROI
- 25-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.45 Units / -27.16% ROI
- 41-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 18.02% ROI
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -325 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Michael Soroka (WAS) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Soroka has thrown 60% of his pitches in the strike zone (354/594) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Mike Soroka walked 16% of left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Mike Soroka has walked 7 of 153 batters (5%) this season — tied for 10th lowest among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP– 94th Percentile. He walked 44 of 347 batters (13%) last season — fourth highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– second Percentile.
Mike Soroka has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (24 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .378 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 58% (344/593) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Kodai Senga threw just 35% of his pitches in the strike zone (38/109) in his last start — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .444 (12-for-27) against Kodai Senga’s low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 4-14 (.211) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Nationals are just 30-54 (.357) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 6-13 (.316) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (15th best runs allowed) today.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 22-9 (.710) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 8-80 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .236 (297 PA’s) this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .236 (162 PA’s) against RHP this month (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .963 (2,707 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.080.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .167 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 79% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .220 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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