- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-125) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD, MD.
This season, the Nationals are 18-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 14-28 ATS.
Nationals vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-4, 3.64 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-3, 5.61 ERA
Nationals vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +165 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Nationals vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Orioles and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+1.70 Units / 21% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games (+14.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.38 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.13 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 21-24 against the Run Line (-6.85 Units / -12.07% ROI).
- 18-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.87 Units / -12.37% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -5.6% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -2.21% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 14-28 against the Run Line (-16.46 Units / -30.85% ROI).
- 15-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.95 Units / -34.9% ROI
- 19-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.73 Units / -5.92% ROI
- 20-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.82 Units / -1.77% ROI
Orioles vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Orioles vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Orioles vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Orioles vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -105 |
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
9 of MacKenzie Gore’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 2nd most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 38% (31 SO in 81 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 35% (75 SO in 213 PAs) this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 30% (141/473) versus MacKenzie Gore in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Povich has a strike rate of 76% (82/108) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Cade Povich has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (113 Total Bases / 257 ABs) when ahead in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .295 (23-for-78) against Cade Povich when ahead in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .192 — first Percentile.
Cade Povich has an ERA of 7.94 (17.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 3.57 — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 88-118 (.425) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 62-96 (.390) after a win since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Nationals are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Orioles are just 2-13 (.133) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are just 0-26 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Orioles are 75-27 (.735) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Orioles are just 5-10 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .481 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .178 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Orioles hitters are slugging .766 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .252 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.230 (278 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.040.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Nationals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.07 (181.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
The Orioles have won 37% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Nationals vs Orioles and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
