- The Red Sox are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Washington Nationals (+170) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-210) on Friday, May 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Nationals are 18-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 19-18 ATS.
Nationals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 0-3, 6.46 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 3-3, 1.96 ERA
Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -120 | +170 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 +100 | -210 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+23.50 Units / 168% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+15.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+14.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+12.25 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 62% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.40 Units / 75% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 81% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 away games (+4.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 23-13 against the Run Line (+8.58 Units / 18.44% ROI).
- 18-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 26.68% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -9.43% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.18 Units / 0.45% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 19-18 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -5.85% ROI).
- 19-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 14-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -21.59% ROI
- 21-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 13.49% ROI
Red Sox vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Red Sox vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .330 (106-for-321) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .326 (188-for-576) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .453 (24-for-53) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .503 (290 Total Bases / 576 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — third Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (47/75) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has walked 1 of 63 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has a strike rate of 74% (135/182) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OBP of just .165 (97 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .233 — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 15-25 (.375) after a home win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 23-42 (.354) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 44-68 (.393) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 72-44 (.621) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are just 1-89 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Red Sox are just 38-68 (.358) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .093 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Nationals are just 3-12 (.200) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Nationals hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,263 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.320 (246 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.050.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% against Nationals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 93 of 1,361 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.21 (183.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 17 of 331 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.75 (330.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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