- The Red Sox are -150 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-150) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Nationals are 19-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 20-19 ATS.
Nationals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-3, 3.44 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 3-1, 3.00 ERA
Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 away games (+21.10 Units / 117% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+15.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+14.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+12.05 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+8.50 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 away games (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 24-14 against the Run Line (+8.03 Units / 16.33% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 27.37% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -14.03% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.18 Units / 5.16% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-19 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -5.17% ROI).
- 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 14-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -25.47% ROI
- 23-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 17.38% ROI
Red Sox vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (187/662) against MacKenzie Gore since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (35/93) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 43% (20/46) against MacKenzie Gore on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 42% (31/74) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (45/293) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (127/208) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (414/745) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (21/129) against Brayan Bello with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 23-42 (.354) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 44-68 (.393) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 15-25 (.375) after a home win since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 35-53 (.398) after a win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are just 3-155 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Red Sox are just 1-89 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 38-68 (.358) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .091 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Nationals hitters have just 436 strikeouts in 2,323 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,851 strikeouts in 9,245 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .258 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 119 strikeouts in 404 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .359 (1,767 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Nationals pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have allowed 2.71 runs per game (57/21) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 97 of 1,430 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 122 of 1,784 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.21 (183.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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