- The Reds are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | MASN
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-190) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Nationals are 14-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 19-14 ATS.
Nationals vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 1-3, 5.71 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 3-2, 2.25 ERA
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -105 | +155 |
| Reds | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -115 | -190 |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 62.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+7.30 Units / 113% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Wynns has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+30.50 Units / 762% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.90 Units / 83% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+2.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 16-17 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -7.12% ROI).
- 14-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -6.51% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -4.25% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 19-14 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 4.76% ROI).
- 18-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 7.39% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -9.97% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 1.1% ROI
Reds vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Reds vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a swing rate of just 34% (168/498) against Trevor Williams on sliders in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his changeup for a strike just 31% (25/81) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 58% — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .408 (29-for-71) against Trevor Williams this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (619/1,221) of the time in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has walked 4% of batters this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (102/143) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 96th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of just .248 (141 PA’s) this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 91st Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 31 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 2-18 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .037.
The Nationals are just 81-97 (.455) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 25-88 (.221) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Nationals are just 84-93 (.475) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-16 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .158 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Nationals vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
