- The Nationals are +100 favorites vs the Reds
- Nationals vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | MAS2 | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Nationals are 15-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 19-15 ATS.
Nationals vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-3, 3.54 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 1-3, 4.74 ERA
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -110 | +100 |
| Reds | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -110 | -120 |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.40 Units / 335% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 27 games (+4.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 17-17 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -4.52% ROI).
- 15-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -1.83% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.81% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -7.17% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 19-15 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 2.54% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 2.63% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -7% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -1.99% ROI
Reds vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Reds vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -110 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of MacKenzie Gore’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
8 of MacKenzie Gore’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 36% (59 SO in 165 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 60% (27 SO in 45 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .455 (10-for-22) against Nick Martinez’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has induced opposing hitters to ground into 3 double plays in 5 opportunities (60%) in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (9/44) against Nick Martinez this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 2-18 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals were just 27-44 (.380) after a win in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Nationals are just 39-60 (.394) on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .467.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 4-77 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Reds are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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