- The Orioles are -150 favorites vs the Mariners
- Orioles vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Orioles / Mariners TV Channel: MAS2 | RTNW | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (-155) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+130) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Orioles are 55-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 39-49 ATS.
Orioles vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 9-3, 2.28 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 6-7, 3.90 ERA
Orioles vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +115 | O 7 -110 | -155 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -140 | U 7 -110 | +130 |
Orioles vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 32 games (+30.25 Units / 95% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+17.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+12.35 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+20.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 71 games (+17.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games at home (+16.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+9.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 49-37 against the Run Line (+19.9 Units / 19.97% ROI).
- 55-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.2 Units / 10.81% ROI
- 43-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 8.92% ROI
- 32-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.55 Units / -16.53% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 39-49 against the Run Line (-15.45 Units / -13.48% ROI).
- 47-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 34-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.95 Units / -21.02% ROI
- 50-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.45 Units / 12.85% ROI
Mariners vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mariners vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Corbin Burnes (BAL) | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -120 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (419/631) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 66% of the time (262/395) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has had second base stolen on him 21 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (95/133) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 69% of the time (461/664) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (9-for-57) against Bryce Miller on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — 94th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .158 (9 Total Bases / 57 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 69% of the time (461/664) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 98th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Orioles are 56-43 (.566) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Orioles are 51-27 (.654) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Orioles are 47-59 (.443) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Orioles are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Mariners are 184-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 52-7 (.881) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 153-25 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .812 (1,018 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Orioles hitters are slugging .272 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Orioles hitters have 115 extra-base hits out of 276 total hits (42%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .459 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Mariners are batting just .210 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .215 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 48% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 247 of 3,671 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .206 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 39 of 780 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 205 of 3,136 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 626 of 9,142 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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