- The Orioles are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Orioles vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Orioles / Marlins TV Channel: MASN | BSFL | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (-210) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+170) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Orioles are 60-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 47-55 ATS.
Orioles vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 10-4, 2.38 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-5, 5.12 ERA
Orioles vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 -125 | O 8 -110 | -210 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | U 8 -110 | +170 |
Orioles vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 80.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 45 games (+31.95 Units / 71% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 48 games (+23.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Corbin Burnes has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 games at home (+26.30 Units / 120% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.55 Units / 73% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 92 games (+15.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 86 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+19.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games (+11.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+9.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 38 games at home (+5.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 54-47 against the Run Line (+15.35 Units / 13.13% ROI).
- 60-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 2.58% ROI
- 52-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.65 Units / 9.72% ROI
- 38-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.4 Units / -17.56% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 47-55 against the Run Line (-24.16 Units / -17.85% ROI).
- 37-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.35 Units / -17.88% ROI
- 55-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 5.42% ROI
- 45-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.6 Units / -13.05% ROI
Marlins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes (BAL) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (418/642) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 71% of the time (103/144) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 67% of the time (427/642) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (103/144) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Roddery Munoz with two-strikes in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .164 — 100th Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has walked 29 of 246 batters (12%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .137 (7 GB hits out of 51 GBs) against Roddery Munoz this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Roddery Munoz with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .164 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Orioles are 57-44 (.564) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Orioles are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Orioles are 84-16 (.840) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Marlins are just 11-12 (.478) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Marlins are just 9-14 (.391) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Marlins are just 19-9 (.679) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .793 (1,206 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Orioles are 56-27 (.675) against the run line (31.0% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (1,216 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .202 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Orioles pitchers have walked 257 of 3,801 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
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