- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Thursday, April 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 7-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 8-4 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez 2-0, 2.19 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock 1-0, 0.97 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 +100 | +105 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tanner Houck has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 153 games (+33.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 76 away games (+25.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 away games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 6-5 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 17.92% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 8.83% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 4% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -11.97% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 8-4 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 26.51% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 15.25% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 3.73% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -11.54% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Henderson | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Devers | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Santander | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| O'Neill | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rutschman | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| O'Hearn | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| O'Neill | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Santander | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Devers | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mountcastle | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Henderson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| O'Neill | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Whitlock | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Rodriguez | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (5/20) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (36/49) this season — 4th highest among in AL; League Avg: 64% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 42% (13/31) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 33% (16 SO in 49 PAs) this season — 3rd best among in AL; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 78.6 MPH (10 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 89.0 — 99th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.0 innings he’s appeared — Edwin Diaz has the longest active streak at 56.0.
Garrett Whitlock walked 13 of 304 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 8% (2/24) against Garrett Whitlock on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 28-21 (.571) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
The Orioles are 36-20 (.643) after a road win since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles were 34-19 (.642) after a road win in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are 42-51 (.452) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox were 22-20 (.524) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Red Sox are just 17-28 (.378) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Red Sox are 64-5 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Red Sox are just 42-136 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .243 (239 PA’s) with bases empty this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Orioles hitters are slugging .404 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .226.
The Orioles were 37-16 (.698) against the run line (28.9% ROI) after a road win in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .527 (239 PA’s) with bases empty this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .493 (68 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Red Sox hitters have 44 strikeouts in 144 PA’s (31%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 24 of 398 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .256 (398 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.0 MPH (263 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 5 of 109 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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