- The Orioles are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (-135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+115) on Tuesday, April 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 5-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 8-2 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 1-0, 2.32 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 1-0, 5.23 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -105 | -135 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -115 | +115 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tony Kemp has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 away games (+9.45 Units / 135% ROI)
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+9.35 Units / 117% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kutter Crawford has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 153 games (+33.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 76 away games (+25.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 away games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 4-5 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -1.67% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -4.44% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -4.9% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -3.13% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 8-2 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 48.94% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 35.98% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -4.5% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.67% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Devers | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mountcastle | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Westburg | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafaela | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Yoshida | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bello | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Burnes | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (157/264) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes threw fastballs down 63% of the time (164/262) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (166/264) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 65% of the time (325/500) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (109/173) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has located his fastballs down 59% of the time (43/73) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (150/244) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (116/186) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 16-6 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Orioles were 34-19 (.642) after a road win in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are 141-9 (.940) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .869.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox were just 17-27 (.386) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox are just 17-27 (.386) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Red Sox are just 1-76 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox were just 35-49 (.417) after a loss in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .455 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .231 (199 PA’s) with bases empty this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .228 (114 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Orioles hitters have 23 extra-base hits out of 43 total hits (54%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters have a groundball batting average of .263 against the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .266 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 18 of 330 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 934 of 12,486 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.49 (90.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
The Red Sox have allowed 2.40 runs per game (24/10) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.56.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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