- The Orioles are -102 favorites vs the Royals
- Orioles vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Orioles / Royals TV Channel: MASN | FDKC | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (-105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-115) on Friday, April 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Orioles are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 2-4 ATS.
Orioles vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 1-0, 8.45 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 0-0, 5.41 ERA
Orioles vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -120 | -105 |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | U 8 +100 | -115 |
Orioles vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+15.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+9.80 Units / 327% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 154 games (+17.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 away games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 74 away games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 78 away games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 91 of their last 162 games (+10.70 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 162 games (+5.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 3-4 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -25% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -16.77% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 37.91% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -44.52% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 2-4 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -32.97% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -40.71% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -3.08% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -4.48% ROI
Royals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Royals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Dean Kremer (BAL) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 35% (35/99) versus Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Dean Kremer located 57% of his pitches away (1,656/2,925) in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Dean Kremer located 57% of his pitches away (1,656/2,925) in 2023 — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 54% (753/1,383) of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (50/268) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 16 of 395 right-handed batters (4%) since last season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 87th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (48/260) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Seth Lugo walked 13 of 288 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are 143-21 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Orioles are 101-65 (.608) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Orioles are 70-25 (.737) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Orioles are 71-6 (.922) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 14-80 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Royals are just 21-67 (.239) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Royals were 42-16 (.724) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Orioles (fourth best runs scored) today.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters grounded into 71 double plays in 1,127 opportunities (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have chased 13% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals hitters struck out just 298 times in 1,502 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters struck out just 863 times in 4,480 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 10 of 52 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Orioles have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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