- The Twins are -160 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Twins TV Channel: MASN | TWTV | KMSP
The Baltimore Orioles (+145) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-175) on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Orioles are 13-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 18-17 ATS.
Orioles vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-2, 5.22 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 2-2, 2.23 ERA
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -105 | +145 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -175 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+26.60 Units / 380% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+14.70 Units / 245% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+9.70 Units / 97% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.80 Units / 80% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 away games (+9.30 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.19 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.79 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 29 games (+5.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 12-21 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -23.63% ROI).
- 13-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -28.86% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -2.23% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -2.52% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 18-17 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 3.82% ROI).
- 15-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -18.72% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -17.99% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 12.52% ROI
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Povich has allowed a slugging percentage of .493 (33 Total Bases / 67 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.
Cade Povich has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 12 innings — the longest active streak is 15.
Cade Povich has a strike rate of 76% (78/103) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Cade Povich has walked 17% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — 4th highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has walked 4% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez struck out 28% (111/392) of right-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 84th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez located his fastball inside 44% of the time (600/1,361) in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 97th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 44% (8 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are just 2-11 (.154) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Orioles are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Orioles are 73-27 (.730) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Orioles are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 1-85 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Twins are just 6-14 (.300) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .500 (384 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .240 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.
Orioles hitters are slugging .837 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Orioles are batting just .178 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Twins are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are averaging 4.19 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Orioles pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.14 (154.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.71.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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