- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 18-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 15-19 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 1-3, 4.36 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 1-2, 4.60 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -110 | -110 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -110 | -110 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 away games (+28.50 Units / 238% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+9.65 Units / 121% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kevin Newman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+17.50 Units / 292% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.95 Units / 81% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 130 games (+11.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 18-18 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 4.78% ROI).
- 18-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -4.68% ROI
- 19-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 4.34% ROI
- 16-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -12.5% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 15-19 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -14.76% ROI).
- 14-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -20.95% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -18.54% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 10.38% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 13% (23/177) against Matt Waldron in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 19% (50/262) against Matt Waldron this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (6/58) against Matt Waldron when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .352 (96-for-273) against Ryne Nelson at home since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .612 (167 Total Bases / 273 ABs) at home since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .407 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (88/508) against Ryne Nelson since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .550 (132 Total Bases / 240 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .418 — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 5-16 (.238) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 4-144 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Padres are just 4-76 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Padres are just 1-83 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 128-23 (.848) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are just 71-11 (.866) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Diamondbacks are just 145-15 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-71 (.336) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 66 total hits (55%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Padres are batting .286 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have 23 extra-base hits out of 52 total hits (44%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .855 (433 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .373 (433 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 74 strikeouts in 433 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .312 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 3 of 115 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (4,757 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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