- The Dodgers are -140 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Dodgers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Dodgers TV Channel: SNLA | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles, CA.
This season, the Padres are 91-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 77-80 ATS.
Padres vs Dodgers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 14-11, 3.43 ERA
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 13-7, 3.11 ERA
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 +100 | +120 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -120 | -140 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 47 games (+30.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+14.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 50 games (+13.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Edman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+21.50 Units / 179% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+14.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+10.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 80 games (+21.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 76 away games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 75 games (+20.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 70 games at home (+4.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+4.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 80-77 against the Run Line (+6.2 Units / 3.18% ROI).
- 91-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 4.41% ROI
- 81-72 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.31% ROI
- 72-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -10.32% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 77-80 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -4.54% ROI).
- 93-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -4.58% ROI
- 86-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.3 Units / 7.71% ROI
- 66-86 when betting on the total runs Under for -28.7 Units / -16.57% ROI
Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .267 (734 PAs) this season — seventh best among qualified SPs– 89th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 95 of 862 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 62 of 574 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 60% of the time (940/1,565) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (73/192) against Jack Flaherty with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 43% (30/70) of opposing batters this month (4 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 59% (218/367) this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has thrown breaking pitches 51% of the time (681/1,343) when behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 65-4 (.942) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Padres are 28-19 (.596) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Padres are 17-31 (.354) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Padres are 32-13 (.711) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .642.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 164-29 (.850) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Dodgers are 264-49 (.843) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Dodgers are 54-30 (.643) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Dodgers are 59-29 (.670) after a road loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .278 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 273 strikeouts in 1,575 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .205 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Padres hitters have just 766 strikeouts in 4,347 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .784 (13,367 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .786 (12,383 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .449 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .337 (8,858 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 31% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Dodgers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (2198.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Dodgers pitchers have won 49% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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