- The Dodgers are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Dodgers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Dodgers TV Channel: SNLA | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) on Thursday, September 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles, CA.
This season, the Padres are 91-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 77-81 ATS.
Padres vs Dodgers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 6-5, 3.99 ERA
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 1-6, 5.56 ERA
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Dodgers | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 48 games (+29.50 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+15.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 49 games (+12.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Edman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+20.50 Units / 158% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 81 games (+20.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 77 away games (+16.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+10.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games (+19.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games at home (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+4.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 81-77 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 3.65% ROI).
- 91-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 3.93% ROI
- 81-73 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 73-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.95 Units / -9.67% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 77-81 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -5.04% ROI).
- 94-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -4.19% ROI
- 86-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.3 Units / 7.09% ROI
- 67-86 when betting on the total runs Under for -27.7 Units / -15.88% ROI
Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Will Smith (LAD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Walker Buehler (LAD) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has not allowed a walk in his last 81 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 23rd — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 97.
Joe Musgrove has a strikeout rate of 56% (10 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has pitched 13.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 27.0.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Walker Buehler has allowed an OPS of 1.057 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .607 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (18/28) against Walker Buehler in his last two starts — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Walker Buehler has allowed a slugging percentage of .613 (19 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .331 — fourth Percentile.
Walker Buehler has allowed an OPS of .745 (49 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .467 — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 53-36 (.596) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Padres are 45-31 (.592) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Padres are 125-21 (.856) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Padres are 17-31 (.354) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 165-29 (.851) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Dodgers are 265-49 (.844) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Dodgers are 104-57 (.646) at home since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Dodgers are 59-29 (.670) after a road loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 273 strikeouts in 1,579 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Padres are batting .393 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Padres hitters have just 1,048 strikeouts in 5,957 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of 1.224 (2,453 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .449 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .705 with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .605.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .333 (6,086 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have won 49% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Dodgers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (2207.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
The Dodgers pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 31% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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