- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Mariners
- Padres vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | PDTV | FS1
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-110) on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Padres are 82-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 62-83 ATS.
Padres vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 12-8, 3.13 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo 7-2, 2.37 ERA
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | O 7 -125 | -110 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 7 +105 | -110 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 36 games (+35.40 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+14.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+12.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+11.35 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 15 games at home (+29.30 Units / 195% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+13.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games (+14.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 71 away games (+14.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games at home (+16.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 70 games at home (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games at home (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 60 games at home (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 60 games at home (+5.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 73-73 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 1.19% ROI).
- 82-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 1.42% ROI
- 80-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.05 Units / 6.3% ROI
- 64-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.35% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 62-83 against the Run Line (-24.85 Units / -13.77% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.25 Units / -9.48% ROI
- 65-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -9.11% ROI
- 73-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 1.04% ROI
Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo (SEA) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Michael King (SD) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH this season (394 balls in play) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.1 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (331 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 87.2
Michael King has walked 58 of 657 batters (9%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 16th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.0 MPH since last season (657 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has walked 9 of 381 batters (2%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (74/260) against Bryan Woo against right-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .228 (381 PA’s) this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .175 (211 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 96th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 26-19 (.578) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 58-4 (.935) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Padres are 25-18 (.581) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres are 19-44 (.302) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 60-7 (.896) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Mariners are 110-20 (.846) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Mariners are 112-17 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Mariners are 41-28 (.594) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 1 strikeout in 30 PA’s (3%) against LHP this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Padres hitters have just 953 strikeouts in 5,509 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .205 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Padres are batting .280 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .209 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Mariners are batting just .196 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .223 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .208 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 23% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .278 (5,175 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mariners pitchers have walked 167 of 2,742 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .256 (1,287 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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