- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Marlins
- Padres vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-185) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+150) on Saturday, August 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Padres are 65-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 54-63 ATS.
Padres vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 7-9, 3.80 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 2-6, 5.66 ERA
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -105 | -185 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -115 | +150 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 61.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 46 games (+47.50 Units / 103% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+13.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+12.15 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+36.00 Units / 360% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+18.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+17.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+16.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+16.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 58 away games (+18.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 61 games at home (+24.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games (+14.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 61-56 against the Run Line (+7.3 Units / 4.99% ROI).
- 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 2.3% ROI
- 62-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 3.33% ROI
- 53-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.85 Units / -12.2% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 54-63 against the Run Line (-26.91 Units / -17.52% ROI).
- 43-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.6 Units / -14.29% ROI
- 64-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 8.36% ROI
- 49-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.35 Units / -15.87% ROI
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (24/100) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (17/81) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (12/50) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 9% (1/11) against Matt Waldron this month (1 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .537 (144 Total Bases / 268 ABs) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has walked 35 of 310 batters (11%) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed an OPS of .873 (310 PA’s) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .709 — third Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .650 (39 Total Bases / 60 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .368 — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 66-51 (.564) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 110-19 (.853) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 38-25 (.603) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Padres are 48-4 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Marlins are just 14-14 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Marlins are just 11-16 (.407) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Marlins are just 12-17 (.414) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 551 strikeouts in 3,095 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have missed on just 16% of swings this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres hitters have just 60 strikeouts in 410 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (4,104 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .212 (2,232 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,399 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have drawn 178 walks in 2,922 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Padres pitchers this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.62 runs per game (343/61) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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