Padres vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 6

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Pittsburgh Pirates' Jack Suwinski follows through on a single during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Miami Marlins, Saturday, June 24, 2023, in Miami.
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 06, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Padres / Pirates TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT

The San Diego Padres (-165) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Padres are 61-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 62-49 ATS.

Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 11-8, 3.44 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 5-7, 3.97 ERA

Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +100O 8 -110-165
Pirates +1.5 -120U 8 -110+140

Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 63.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 42 games (+34.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+16.05 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+18.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+14.40 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games at home (+14.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+11.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 54 away games (+18.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 away games (+4.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 67 games (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 67 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 59-54 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 4.96% ROI).

  • 61-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.34% ROI
  • 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 2.72% ROI
  • 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -11.66% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 62-49 against the Run Line (+10.81 Units / 7.52% ROI).

  • 56-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.12% ROI
  • 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -8.68% ROI
  • 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.68 Units / 0.56% ROI

Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 0.5 +600 0.5 -1000
Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +625 0.5 -1000
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 0.5 +675 0.5 -1100

Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jackson Merrill (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Ha-seong Kim (SD) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Luis Campusano (SD) 0.5 -200 0.5 +155
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 0.5 -165 0.5 +130

Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +125 0.5 -165
Xander Bogaerts (SD) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Jackson Merrill (SD) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Luis Campusano (SD) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bailey Falter (PIT) 2.5 -155 2.5 +120
Dylan Cease (SD) 7.5 -105 7.5 -125

Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .256 (535 PAs) this season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.

Dylan Cease has walked 84 of 790 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .193 (134-for-693) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.

17 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (34/102) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (34/229) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (320/735) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1964.2 RPM on curveballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 2528.4 — fourth Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Padres are just 2-113 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Padres are 18-13 (.581) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Padres are just 8-107 (.070) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Padres are 106-19 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .789.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.

The Pirates are just 17-28 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 45-61 (.425) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Pirates are just 12-18 (.400) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.

The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Padres hitters have just 537 strikeouts in 2,964 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have just 758 strikeouts in 4,237 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have drawn 203 walks in 2,964 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates hitters have 430 strikeouts in 1,271 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Pirates hitters have 72 strikeouts in 194 PA’s (37%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.

The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.

The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,629 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,525 of 16,718 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 42 of 414 batters (10%) over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Pirates pitchers have allowed 113 home runs this season — tied for 3rd fewest in MLB.

Pirates vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
  • Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
  • Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
  • Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
  • Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.