- The Rangers are -140 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Rangers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Rangers TV Channel: PDTV | BSSW
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-125) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington, TX.
This season, the Padres are 47-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 40-46 ATS.
Padres vs Rangers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 6-5, 3.63 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Max Scherzer 1-1, 1.74 ERA
Padres vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Padres vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+22.10 Units / 246% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 away games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+16.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 46-44 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 3.46% ROI).
- 47-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -3.29% ROI
- 48-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 41-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -12.26% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 40-46 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -10% ROI).
- 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -14.23% ROI
- 33-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.8 Units / -21.98% ROI
- 49-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.9 Units / 13.64% ROI
Rangers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Rangers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Rangers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Rangers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer (TEX) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Michael King (SD) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .426 (20-for-47) against Michael King on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — seventh Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.3 MPH since the 2022 season (592 balls in play) — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 88.9
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2022 season (275 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 87.1
Hitters have swung at 59% of Michael King’s pitches in the zone (969/1,642) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (20/72) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.5 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (132 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Opponents are hitting just .247 (18-for-73) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .344 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (18/65) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are just 1-105 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Padres are just 10-39 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Padres are 36-4 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 7-77 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Rangers are just 9-165 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Rangers are just 93-61 (.604) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Rangers are just 5-90 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .387 (407 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Padres are batting .323 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Padres hitters have just 609 strikeouts in 3,374 PA’s (18%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (414 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
13% of Rangers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,028/15,557 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Rangers hitters are slugging .463 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,594 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,097 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 47 of 755 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 305 of 3,201 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 3 of 104 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
- Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Nathaniel Lowe (Texas Rangers): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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