- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Rays TV Channel: ATV+
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Friday, August 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Padres are 76-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 66-67 ATS.
Padres vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 3-5, 4.55 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 6-8, 3.77 ERA
Padres vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Rays | +1.5 -225 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Padres vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 27 games (+26.30 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+18.90 Units / 315% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+10.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 67 away games (+15.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 59 games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 81 of their last 130 games (+29.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 124 games (+17.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+14.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+7.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 69-67 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 3.04% ROI).
- 76-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 1.37% ROI
- 73-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.35 Units / 4.27% ROI
- 61-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.2 Units / -13.38% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 66-67 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -4.58% ROI).
- 66-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -6.16% ROI
- 59-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -17 Units / -11.67% ROI
- 70-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.71% ROI
Rays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Rays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Martin Perez (SD) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 50% of the time (362/719) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (23/101) against Martin Perez on elevated fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.035 (178 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .755 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has a strikeout rate of just 10% (6 SO in 60 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (58/158) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (30/139) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are 118-20 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 69-55 (.556) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 54-4 (.931) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .853.
The Padres are 38-28 (.576) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 121-5 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are 15-176 (.079) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 58-4 (.935) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Rays are 29-103 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 891 strikeouts in 5,115 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 643 strikeouts in 3,659 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 16 strikeouts in 129 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OBP of just .269 (762 PA’s) against RHP this month (25 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .618 (762 PA’s) against RHP this month (25 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .655 (3,806 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (7,248 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,186 of 16,911 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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