- The Padres are +105 favorites vs the Rays
- Padres vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Rays TV Channel: PDTV | BSUN | ESPN+ | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Saturday, August 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Padres are 77-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 66-68 ATS.
Padres vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 4-6, 4.56 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 1-2, 3.48 ERA
Padres vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -225 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Padres vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 27 games (+26.30 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+18.90 Units / 315% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+10.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 68 away games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 60 games (+15.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 81 of their last 131 games (+27.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 125 games (+16.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+6.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 61 games (+3.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 70-67 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 3.59% ROI).
- 77-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 1.94% ROI
- 74-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 4.91% ROI
- 61-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.3 Units / -14.01% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 66-68 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -5.11% ROI).
- 66-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -6.89% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -16 Units / -10.9% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 2.94% ROI
Rays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Rays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz (TB) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (90/297) against Randy Vasquez this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (121/407) against Randy Vasquez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (50/143) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 14% (55 SO in 380 PAs) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.1 innings pitched — the longest active streak is 15.1.
Shane Baz has not allowed a hit to any of the last 35 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 52.
Shane Baz has pitched 9.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 28.0.
Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (4 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are 57-7 (.891) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Padres are 55-4 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Padres are 39-28 (.582) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 25-17 (.595) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 121-5 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are 29-104 (.218) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Rays are 12-114 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Rays are 19-12 (.613) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 261 of 4,088 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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