- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Padres vs Rays Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Rays TV Channel: PDTV | BSUN
The San Diego Padres (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Sunday, September 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Padres are 77-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 67-68 ATS.
Padres vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 12-10, 3.58 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 7-6, 3.61 ERA
Padres vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | O 7 -120 | -125 |
| Rays | +1.5 -175 | U 7 +100 | +105 |
Padres vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- David Peralta has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 29 games (+24.50 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+13.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+12.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.90 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+17.90 Units / 256% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 61 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 69 away games (+14.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 81 of their last 132 games (+26.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 126 games (+15.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 games (+4.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 70-68 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 2.38% ROI).
- 77-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 1.39% ROI
- 75-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.35 Units / 5.54% ROI
- 61-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.4 Units / -14.63% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 67-68 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -4.14% ROI).
- 67-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -6.23% ROI
- 61-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -15 Units / -10.14% ROI
- 70-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 2.18% ROI
Rays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +105 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .274 (638 PAs) this season — ninth best among qualified SPs– 87th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .155 (33-for-213) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .194 (140-for-723) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has struck out 35% (116/329) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .199 (106-for-533) against Ryan Pepiot since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of just .207 (25 Total Bases / 121 ABs) on elevated fastballs since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .148 (13-for-88) against Ryan Pepiot’s elevated fastball this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .216 — 93rd Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of just .182 (16 Total Bases / 88 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .367 — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are 55-4 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Padres are 25-18 (.581) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Padres are 119-20 (.856) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 10-53 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 12-114 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Rays are 122-5 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Rays are 80-17 (.825) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 905 strikeouts in 5,203 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 656 strikeouts in 3,732 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .265 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Padres are batting .204 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have 204 strikeouts in 628 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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