- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Phillies vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | KMOV | NSP+
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+105) on Friday, April 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Phillies are 8-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 6-6 ATS.
Phillies vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 0-2, 6.36 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Andre Pallante 1-0, 3.86 ERA
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -105 | -125 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -115 | +105 |
Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+9.30 Units / 186% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+12.00 Units / 150% ROI)
- Victor Scott II has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.75 Units / 129% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.15 Units / 92% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 82 away games (+9.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 82 away games (+2.65 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 98 of their last 165 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 86 of their last 163 games (+1.85 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 84 of their last 165 games (+0.43 Units / 0% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 81 games at home (+3.50 Units / 3% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 8-3 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 21.54% ROI).
- 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 27.58% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -30.61% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 22.59% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 6-6 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -7.28% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -22.14% ROI
- 9-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.75 Units / 51.53% ROI
- 2-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -60.53% ROI
Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cardinals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Andre Pallante (STL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 88% (14/16) against Aaron Nola this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (3/20) against Aaron Nola in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (217/658) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (422/1,223) when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 95th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (173/226) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 77% (102/132) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (173/226) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 73% (55/75) against Andre Pallante in two-strike counts in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 89-17 (.840) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Phillies are 59-28 (.678) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cardinals are 74-2 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are just 114-23 (.832) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Cardinals are just 50-52 (.490) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Phillies (fifth best runs scored) today.
The Cardinals were 18-9 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .966 (148 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .310 (252 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,086 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .278 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Cardinals hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,755 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Cardinals have scored 2.67 runs per game (32/12) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.39.
Cardinals hitters have just 383 strikeouts in 1,888 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Phillies have won 56% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cardinals have allowed 8.17 runs per game (49/6) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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