- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Phillies vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Phillies are 22-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 19-18 ATS.
Phillies vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 1-5, 4.61 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 2-2, 5.07 ERA
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -118 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -170 | U 8 -102 | +105 |
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+18.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 103% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 19-18 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.86% ROI).
- 22-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 3.14% ROI
- 18-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -7.2% ROI
- 19-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -1.48% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 19-18 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -4.34% ROI).
- 22-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 17.99% ROI
- 20-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 9.53% ROI
- 15-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.9 Units / -16.83% ROI
Guardians vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Guardians vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (250/748) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 34% of the time (207/613) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (43/135) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has allowed an OBP of .458 (72 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed an OBP of .471 (51 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .381 (24-for-63) against Gavin Williams this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed a BABIP of .512 against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .291 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 13-132 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 100-21 (.826) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Phillies are 5-11 (.312) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 100-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Phillies batted .256 with two outs in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Phillies have scored first in 79% of their home games since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,910 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies pitchers have struck out 28% of left-handed batters they faced this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
More MLB Reading:
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