- The Phillies are +105 favorites vs the Mets
- Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Mets TV Channel: SNY | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Monday, April 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Phillies are 13-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 12-10 ATS.
Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 0-4, 6.65 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 2-2, 1.35 ERA
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +170 | O 8 -118 | +105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -210 | U 8 -102 | -125 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+9.80 Units / 163% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+10.60 Units / 177% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 86 away games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 85 away games (+2.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+11.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 84 games at home (+9.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 84 games at home (+8.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 84 games at home (+4.45 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 12-10 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -2.83% ROI).
- 13-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -4.52% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -3.95% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 12-10 against the Run Line (+2.6 Units / 9.2% ROI).
- 15-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 17.3% ROI
- 7-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -40.04% ROI
- 15-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.35 Units / 30.88% ROI
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 72% (23/32) against Aaron Nola this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (231/694) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .260 (13-for-50) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .158 — second Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .492 (30-for-61) against Tylor Megill when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed a batting average of .319 vs right-handed batters (14th worst)– 11th Percentile and just .133 vs left-handed batters this season (fifth best among non-qualified SPs)– 96th Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .412 (194 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 63-31 (.670) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Phillies are 12-127 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 8-66 (.108) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 2-7 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .081.
The Mets are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .034.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .344 (2,200 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .762 (1,792 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mets hitters had an OPS of .769 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won 56% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 2.66 (105.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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