- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Mets TV Channel: FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Phillies are 91-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 78-74 ATS.
Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-6, 6.35 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 10-6, 3.76 ERA
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +110 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -130 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.80 Units / 82% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+16.50 Units / 275% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 60 games (+20.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+35.50 Units / 142% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 93 games (+20.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 75-77 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -2.45% ROI).
- 91-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.13% ROI
- 70-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -7.87% ROI
- 75-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -1.44% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 78-74 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.01% ROI).
- 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.76% ROI
- 75-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -1.32% ROI
- 70-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -6.92% ROI
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Taijuan Walker (PHI) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has allowed an OPS of .929 (350 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .709 — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strikeout rate of just 6% (2 SO in 35 PAs) this month (3 games) — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of .557 (175 Total Bases / 314 ABs) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 137 of Taijuan Walker’s 594 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (413/555) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has walked 29 of 347 right-handed batters (8%) this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 16th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .319 (257 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 16th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .294 (70 Total Bases / 238 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 91st Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 79-13 (.859) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Phillies are 18-7 (.720) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Mets are 22-15 (.595) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Mets are 15-186 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are just 59-16 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,795 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,413 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .789 (1,795 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .260 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets hitters are slugging .447 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Mets are batting .258 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .309 (256 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 552 of 5,725 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH this season (3,681 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Mets pitchers have walked 257 of 2,771 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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