- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Mets TV Channel: ATV+
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Friday, September 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Phillies are 91-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 79-74 ATS.
Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 10-9, 3.21 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 9-2, 2.87 ERA
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -115 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -105 | -105 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+13.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+21.70 Units / 310% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 61 games (+19.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 away games (+6.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 36 games (+51.12 Units / 142% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 36 games (+36.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 94 games (+21.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 95 games (+16.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 75-78 against the Run Line (-6.2 Units / -3.31% ROI).
- 91-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -7.22% ROI
- 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -2.06% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 79-74 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 1.75% ROI).
- 85-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 4.25% ROI
- 76-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -0.71% ROI
- 70-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -7.51% ROI
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (132/213) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (311/530) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has a strike rate of 76% (209/277) this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has a strike rate of 76% (209/277) this month (3 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.2 MPH on the 166 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,542/4,166) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (98/180) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 113 of 1,059 right-handed batters (11%) since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 79-13 (.859) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 12-114 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Mets are 10-47 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 15-186 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are just 60-16 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,799 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies are batting .258 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (12,732 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .312 (272 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Mets hitters are slugging .378 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Mets are batting .290 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 413 of 5,700 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .232 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 1,146 of 11,847 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 257 of 2,780 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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