- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Mets
- Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Mets TV Channel: NSPA | SNY | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Phillies are 92-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 79-75 ATS.
Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 12-7, 3.16 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 11-5, 3.29 ERA
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | -105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -115 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.80 Units / 295% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+11.05 Units / 92% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+21.70 Units / 310% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Sean Manaea has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+18.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 away games (+7.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.35 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 49 games (+69.58 Units / 142% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 95 games (+20.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+15.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 76-78 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -2.47% ROI).
- 92-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.12% ROI
- 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.59% ROI
- 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -2.7% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 79-75 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 0.84% ROI).
- 85-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.71% ROI
- 77-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 70-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -8.12% ROI
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (629/1,194) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (243/412) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .205 (16 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .367 — 99th Percentile.
25 of Ranger Suarez’s 105 breaking pitch strikeouts (24%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .187 (45-for-241) against Sean Manaea when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 94th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .231 (39 Total Bases / 169 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — 97th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 29 of 270 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (922/1,929) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 80-13 (.860) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 27-24 (.529) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Phillies are 18-7 (.720) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 7-56 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 10-133 (.070) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Mets are just 62-13 (.827) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Mets are just 125-19 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .261 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,830 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .256 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Phillies are batting .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,739 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .774 (1,588 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,131 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .231 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 258 of 2,789 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,149 of 11,895 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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