- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-150) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+125) on Sunday, March 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 0-2 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -120 | -150 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | U 9 +100 | +125 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in his last game (+6.90 Units / 690% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 2 games (+13.90 Units / 695% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.35 Units / 70% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 away games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 151 games (+2.43 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 1 games (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 154 games (+7.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 112.5% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 65.57% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -100% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 0-2 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -100% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (412/1,178) when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 48% (266/553) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 531 of Aaron Nola’s 1,157 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker allowed a BABIP of .383 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — first Percentile.
Mitchell Parker threw his curveball 32% of the time (208/646) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (45/317) against Mitchell Parker on elevated fastballs since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (45/317) against Mitchell Parker on elevated fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 12-120 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies were 20-23 (.465) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Phillies were 51-9 (.850) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 45-80 (.360) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 72-92 (.439) at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Nationals are just 135-160 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.150 (55 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Phillies hitters are slugging .696 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Phillies hitters have chased 16% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Phillies have scored 5.50 runs per game (11/2) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 715 strikeouts in 3,696 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .949 (2,228 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
The Nationals are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 35% over the last 14 days of the regular season (2 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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