- The Orioles are -185 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | NSPA | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+150) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-185) on Saturday, June 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Phillies are 47-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 41-28 ATS.
Phillies vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-1, 5.49 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez 7-2, 3.29 ERA
Phillies vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -120 | +150 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 +100 | -185 |
Phillies vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 38 games (+17.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 away games (+17.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 games at home (+21.20 Units / 85% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+11.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 54 games (+20.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 52 games (+19.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 52 games (+19.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 51 games (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 53 games (+18.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+20.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 54 games (+18.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+8.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 39-30 against the Run Line (+10.15 Units / 12.26% ROI).
- 47-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.85 Units / 13.1% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -11.26% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 2.31% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 41-28 against the Run Line (+20.25 Units / 25.31% ROI).
- 45-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.65 Units / 11.85% ROI
- 34-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 9.41% ROI
- 25-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -16.68% ROI
Orioles vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Orioles vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Orioles vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Taijuan Walker (PHI) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (41/73) against Taijuan Walker vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (135/759) against Taijuan Walker since last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (261/760) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has walked 28 of 226 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (55/141) against Grayson Rodriguez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 32% (32 SO in 99 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has struck out just 7% (2/27) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 41% (14/34) against Grayson Rodriguez with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 6-1 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Phillies are 41-5 (.891) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Phillies are 8-4 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Phillies are 7-13 (.350) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are 5-17 (.227) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .112.
The Orioles are 55-42 (.567) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Orioles are 49-25 (.662) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Orioles are 15-6 (.714) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .458.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .322 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Phillies have scored first in 78% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 73% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (2,776 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .791 (815 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Orioles hitters have 95 extra-base hits out of 225 total hits (42%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Orioles are 51-23 (.689) against the run line (33.7% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Orioles hitters are slugging .283 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since last season (5,682 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 51% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Orioles have won 48% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Orioles vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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