- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Phillies / Pirates TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Friday, June 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Phillies are 37-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 27-36 ATS.
Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Joe Ross 2-1, 4.35 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 4-3, 3.14 ERA
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | O 9 -105 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -115 | +115 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+14.60 Units / 183% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.59 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 away games (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 away games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+12.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+2.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+2.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 31-31 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -3.62% ROI).
- 37-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 2.99% ROI
- 28-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -12% ROI
- 33-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 3.6% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 27-36 against the Run Line (-16.65 Units / -20.34% ROI).
- 23-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.2 Units / -18.98% ROI
- 24-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -22.13% ROI
- 36-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.75 Units / 14.04% ROI
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ross has thrown 62% of his pitches in the strike zone (160/259) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ross’ has 13 strikeouts and no walks against right-handed batters this season — tied for best K:BB ratio among NL Relievers; League Avg: 2.8 — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ross has thrown inside pitches 59% of the time (122/205) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ross has thrown inside pitches 59% of the time (122/205) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (128/258) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (338/717) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (450/981) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (25/159) against Bailey Falter this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 8-15 (.348) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Phillies are 20-62 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Phillies are 33-120 (.216) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies are just 9-19 (.321) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 6-16 (.273) after a win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates are just 12-44 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .331 (1,632 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 67% of their games (35.8% ROI) when underdogs since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have put just 25% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 40% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers walked 444 of 6,050 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have won just 10% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Pirates have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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