- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Pirates TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-160) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Saturday, June 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Phillies are 37-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 28-36 ATS.
Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 4-0, 2.73 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 3-4, 3.41 ERA
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -105 | -160 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -115 | +135 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+14.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+13.60 Units / 151% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.85 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+8.24 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+7.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+3.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 31-32 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -4.85% ROI).
- 37-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.64% ROI
- 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -10.37% ROI
- 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.95% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 28-36 against the Run Line (-15.65 Units / -18.79% ROI).
- 24-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.05 Units / -17.08% ROI
- 25-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -20.36% ROI
- 36-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.65 Units / 12.26% ROI
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% (28/106) against Ranger Suarez this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (26/37) against Ranger Suarez in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (745/1,411) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (20/28) against Ranger Suarez in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .113 (6-for-53) against Andrew Heaney’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 96th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of .778 (389 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .675 — sixth Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a batting average of .310 versus the heart of the order (sixth worst)– seventh Percentile and just .180 versus non 3-4-5 batters this season (tied for eighth best among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .471 (170 Total Bases / 361 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — sixth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 8-15 (.348) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Phillies are just 16-27 (.372) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 33-120 (.216) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates are just 13-44 (.228) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Phillies are 8-15 (.348) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 61 total hits (just 21%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .359 against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .663 (4,488 PA’s) against RHP in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .374 against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 51% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Pirates have won just 13% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
More MLB Reading:
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