- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Tigers
- Phillies vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Tigers TV Channel: NSPA | BSDT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-185) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+150) on Monday, June 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Phillies are 51-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 35-42 ATS.
Phillies vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 8-3, 3.58 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 1-5, 4.42 ERA
Phillies vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | O 8 -105 | -185 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -110 | U 8 -115 | +150 |
Phillies vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 64.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+20.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 34 games (+16.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+22.10 Units / 184% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+13.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 62 games (+22.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 60 games (+21.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 59 games (+18.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 61 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games (+14.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 42-35 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 7.55% ROI).
- 51-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.6 Units / 10.7% ROI
- 33-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -11.96% ROI
- 39-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 2.9% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 35-42 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -11.22% ROI).
- 36-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -9.09% ROI
- 40-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 6.99% ROI
- 31-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -16.02% ROI
Tigers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Tigers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Tigers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Tigers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +125 |
| Casey Mize (DET) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (301/840) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (199/459) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .130 (15 GB hits out of 115 GBs) against Aaron Nola this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (129-for-671) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 96th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 8% (3 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 25% (12 SO in 48 PAs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 40% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (19/92) against Casey Mize on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .293 (12-for-41) against Casey Mize with two-strikes this month (4 games) — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .172 — fourth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Phillies are 8-16 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Phillies are 4-20 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .059.
The Phillies are 45-5 (.900) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Phillies are 5-18 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .108.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Tigers are 16-2 (.889) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .696.
The Tigers are just 28-4 (.875) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .941.
The Tigers are 46-18 (.719) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .619.
The Tigers are just 90-110 (.450) at home since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (990 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .448 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,608 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .273 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Tigers are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (11,282 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .690 (2,014 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .119 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 198 of 2,847 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Tigers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 674 of 8,920 batters (8%) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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