- The Pirates are -110 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Pirates vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cardinals TV Channel: BSMW | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-110) on Thursday, June 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Pirates are 32-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 33-33 ATS.
Pirates vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 8-3, 3.19 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Lance Lynn 2-3, 3.55 ERA
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -110 | -110 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -110 | -110 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+15.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 away games (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 21 games (+22.45 Units / 107% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+14.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Lance Lynn has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+6.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+9.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+0.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 36-31 against the Run Line (+2.11 Units / 2.38% ROI).
- 32-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -5.33% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 0.54% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.67 Units / -7.72% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 33-33 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -4.08% ROI).
- 32-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -9.64% ROI
- 27-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -14.58% ROI
- 34-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 6.29% ROI
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Carpenter (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn (STL) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (75/234) against Mitch Keller this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (24/62) against Mitch Keller with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .161 (10 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (35/115) against Mitch Keller this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance Lynn has allowed an OPS of .833 (405 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .679 — sixth Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed an OBP of .351 (404 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — sixth Percentile.
Lance Lynn has walked 15 of 107 batters (14%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Lance Lynn has located his pitches away 63% of the time (218/348) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 70-98 (.417) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Pirates are just 124-30 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Pirates are just 81-19 (.810) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Pirates are just 15-24 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are just 6-106 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cardinals are 30-13 (.698) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 2-17 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.
The Cardinals are just 18-30 (.375) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 48 strikeouts in 116 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have 176 strikeouts in 498 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .627 (739 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Cardinals are batting just .219 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Cardinals are batting just .237 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Cardinals won only 43% of their home games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,392 of 15,070 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (1268.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 402.1 feet — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 396.1
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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