- The Cubs are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-200) on Thursday, June 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 28-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 36-32 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 3-4, 3.25 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 6-3, 3.54 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | O 7.5 -115 | +165 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -105 | -200 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 62.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 120% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+14.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.75 Units / 29% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 62 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+7.82 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 31-37 against the Run Line (-12.6 Units / -14.21% ROI).
- 28-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -12.19% ROI
- 26-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.8 Units / -23.47% ROI
- 40-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.55 Units / 15.21% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 36-32 against the Run Line (+4.52 Units / 5.41% ROI).
- 41-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 9.01% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 6.43% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -14.26% ROI
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (258/700) against Andrew Heaney since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — eighth Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of just .190 (8 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on fastballs away this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .367 — 93rd Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a batting average of .308 versus the heart of the order (fifth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .177 versus non 3-4-5 batters this season (sixth best among qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (496/1,209) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 95th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (219/301) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OBP of just .226 (164 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .302 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 20% (83/424) against Jameson Taillon in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 5% of batters since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Cubs are 10-2 (.833) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Phillies (fifth best runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 2-20 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Cubs are 18-6 (.750) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 27% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 28% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .326 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .480 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .808 (1,481 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .322 (6,585 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Cubs are batting .281 versus relief pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 46% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Cubs pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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