- The Cubs are -250 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-250) on Saturday, June 14, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 29-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 36-34 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 1-1, 5.10 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 5-3, 2.90 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | O 7 +105 | +200 |
| Cubs | -1.5 -110 | U 7 -125 | -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+13.35 Units / 134% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Matthew Boyd has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+16.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+15.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 68 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+10.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 33-37 against the Run Line (-10.6 Units / -11.58% ROI).
- 29-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -11.88% ROI
- 26-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -25.62% ROI
- 42-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.55 Units / 17.34% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 36-34 against the Run Line (+2.52 Units / 2.94% ROI).
- 42-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 8.58% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 3.35% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -11.29% ROI
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Burrows has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (13/26) of opposing batters this month (2 games) — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Michael Burrows has thrown off-speed pitches 60% of the time (24/40) on the first pitch of at-bats this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Michael Burrows has a strikeout rate of 39% (7 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Michael Burrows has thrown off-speed pitches 57% of the time (47/82) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total NonFB; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (73/202) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has picked-off 5 runners this season — most among among NL Starters — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 57% (29/51) against Matthew Boyd on the first pitch of at-bats in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has a first-pitch strike rate of 80% (41/51) this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates are just 8-50 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 16-3 (.842) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Cubs are 66-39 (.629) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Cubs are 21-6 (.778) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Cubs are 42-28 (.600) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .662 (6,452 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .359 against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .319 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .373 against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .480 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Cubs are batting .268 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Cubs are batting .261 against LHP since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs hitters are slugging .434 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .377.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.35 (115.0 IP) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
More MLB Reading:
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